Without accumulation, every rally is doomed to failure. Without distribution, every down-move is also doomed to failure. Every move is directly linked to the amount of shares that have changed hands, which creates an imbalance of supply and demand, tipping the move one way or the other.
(Editor’s Note: This next section of the book was written during the early 1990s)
There is a strong body of evidence to show that these processes are at work and nowhere more so than in the Japanese stock market. We are told constantly that the wealth of the world is moving to the Far East. The country that immediately comes to mind is Japan. We are also told that the balance of trade is constantly in Japan's favour. Nevertheless, looking at the Nikkei Index we see that it is constantly making new lows! How can this be? How can the Index that represents potentially the richest country in the world be making new lows, while in far weaker economies the stock markets are making new highs?
Well, at least this demonstrates that the economy is not necessarily the powerhouse that moves a nation's stock market index. Something else must be at work. This is a great mystery to most people, as they will naturally think that a very strong economy and many successful companies within Japan will automatically create a strong stock market, not a weak one. 1,700 Japanese companies all held their annual general meetings on the same day by mutual agreement during 1991 to cut down on the attendance at each meeting! The uninformed public had been blaming individual companies for the decline in their stock prices and, apparently, Japanese gangsters were demanding their money back as well. These gangsters are uninformed like the public, as to the real workings of the stock market. Company directors usually have very little to do with their own stock's performance. They are experts on running the company, not on their stock's performance, and are frequently just as surprised as anyone else is by the action of their own stock.
Bear Markets are caused by the major distribution of the underlying stock that makes up any index. The Nikkei had seen a steady rise for many years. A phenomenal rise occurred in the Eighties creating a bull market that nearly all Japanese, including the gangsters, thought would never end. How could it end?
The Japanese people had been sucked into the stock market in huge numbers at the height of the bull market, into what is known as a Buying Climax. The Nikkei had been in a bull market for many years – everything was booming in the economy. The strongest trading country in the world by far! Most Japanese had interests in the stock market and were very happy with their positions. As the last push-up started, many of these happy people could not stand missing this fantastic bargain and bought even more holdings. They were encouraged to borrow heavily to get in on more action. This thought process, which was repeated many times throughout the country, gave the professional traders the opportunity to sell (distribute) huge holdings over a period of several weeks. The makings of a huge and inevitable bear market had now been set.
The Japanese are famous for their courage, tenacity and company loyalty. It will be interesting to see how far they can be pushed before they can be shaken out. How much pain can a Japanese weak holder take and for how long?